Received: 28.07.2026
Accepted: 13.08.2026
Published online: 21.08.2026
UDC: 615.322:339.13:658.5
DOI: 10.53511/pharmkaz.2026.4.12
ASSESSMENT OF MARKET POTENTIAL AND TECHNO-ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY OF PHYTOSUBSTANCE DEVELOPMENT FROM ELYTRIGIA REPENS L.
Konash N.Ye.1, Zhakipbekov K.S.1, Mombekov S.E.1, Sayakova G.M.1, Rakhymbayev N.A.1, Ashirov M.Z.1, Mukanova A.B.1
1 Asfendiyarov Kazakh National Medical University, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Introduction. The growing demand for herbal medicinal products highlights the need to develop standardized phytosubstances suitable for industrial pharmaceutical applications. However, the transition from plant raw material to a pharmaceutical product requires not only technological and pharmacognostic justification but also assessment of market potential and economic feasibility.
Objective. To assess the market potential and techno-economic feasibility of developing a phytosubstance from Elytrigia repens L., taking into account current market trends and requirements for subsequent industrial implementation.
Materials and Methods. An integrated analytical study combining global and Kazakhstan market analysis with techno-economic modeling of phytosubstance production was conducted. Market data were obtained from international analytical reports and the State Register of Medicines of the Republic of Kazakhstan as of March 30, 2026. The economic model was based on laboratory-scale parameters of ultrasonic extraction using 70% ethanol and a five-year planning horizon. Net present value (NPV), profitability index (PI), and discounted payback period (DPP) were calculated. Sensitivity analysis was performed by varying the selling price, sales volume, and material costs.
Results. The analysis demonstrated sustained growth of the global herbal medicinal products market. In Kazakhstan, plant-derived medicines accounted for 82 of 6,860 registered medicinal products, representing 1.2% of the total and indicating limited representation of this segment. Under the baseline scenario, the estimated production cost of one 500-g unit of phytosubstance was KZT 22,996, with an assumed selling price of KZT 39,000. The calculated NPV was KZT 6,939,928, the PI was 1.43, and the DPP was 3.89 years. Sensitivity analysis showed that project viability was most strongly affected by reductions in selling price and sales volume.
Discussion. The findings suggest that the development of an Elytrigia repens L. phytosubstance may have favorable market and economic potential. Combining market assessment with laboratory extraction parameters and techno-economic modeling enables early-stage evaluation of pharmaceutical development prospects. However, positive financial indicators should not be interpreted as definitive evidence of industrial feasibility because the model is based on laboratory-scale parameters, modeling assumptions, and secondary market data. Scale-up will require consideration of possible changes in extraction yield, GMP implementation, process validation, quality control, product stability, and phytosubstance standardization.
Conclusion. Development of a phytosubstance from Elytrigia repens L. demonstrates potential market and techno-economic feasibility. Pilot-scale production, refinement of regulatory and manufacturing costs, development of quality specifications, and validation of technological reproducibility under conditions approximating industrial production are required before practical implementation.
Keywords: Elytrigia repens L.; phytosubstance; medicinal plant material; market analysis; techno-economic assessment; economic feasibility; pharmaceutical manufacturing.
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